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| Dr Eric Crampton | Chief Economist | eric.crampton@nzinitiative.org.nz | ||||||||||||
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But what has been announced thus far makes for a depressing Budget Day. You might have hoped that inflation running close to 7% might finally trigger a long-overdue overhaul of the income tax thresholds. Minister Robertson has already ruled that out. Inflation-adjusting the tax bands would give more to richer people than to poorer people, so he will not do it. A worker at the median wage and salary income now hitting the 30% tax band on the last few dollars earned may not find that comforting. If a business told staff that, because an inflation adjustment to wages would give more money to the executive team than to minimum wage workers, nobody will get any inflation-adjustment at all, workers would quit. New Zealand loses people instead. The government’s ring-fencing of revenues from the Emissions Trading Scheme last year finally set the stage for a carbon dividend. It could follow Canada, rebating ETS revenues back to households. It got my hopes up at least. But adjust your expectations downward. They’ll be using it for an environmental slush fund, with no guarantee that any of the projects will do anything to reduce the country’s net emissions. At least it will be great for the country’s climate central planners. What might have been a pleasant Budget Day surprise was instead announced at a pre-budget speech this week. Immigration New Zealand’s visa processing backlog is substantial, and the borders are reopening. Fortunately, the agency will be getting a funding boost to staff up and to digitise processes. Treasury may need a similar boost. It has warned that the government’s new budget rules will require closer attention to whether spending delivers real value for money. And if the rumours of a cash-for-clunkers scheme paying people to wreck their older cars are right, Treasury needs stronger economist firepower. Wellbeing gurus attuned to the Living Standards Framework might find a way of supporting cash-for-clunkers, but economists concluded that America’s scheme a decade ago was an expensive debacle. One very welcome Budget Day surprise would be the absence of policies like cash-for-clunkers. But we should not get our hopes up. Better to be pleasantly surprised than to need an even bigger glass of whisky to get through Budget Day disappointments. |
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| Dr Michael Johnston | Senior Fellow | michael.johnston@nzinitiative.org.nz | ||||||||||||
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Emeritus Professor James Chapman (Massey University) opened the day with a history lesson. He explained that there has been a clear scientific consensus for more than two decades, that a focus on word-level decoding skills, including the systematic teaching off phonics, lays the strongest possible foundation for children’s literacy. Professor Chapman’s colleague, Dr Christine Braid, runs professional development programmes for teachers across the country, training them to use literacy teaching methods based on the scientific consensus. She explained that ‘constructivist’ methods of teaching literacy remain dominant in New Zealand, leaving many children struggling to develop literacy. Dr Braid explained that it is often difficult for teachers to let go of these methods. “Unstitching, teaching practice is painful”, she commented, “but we need to start with the phonics”. We were joined by two Australian guests, literacy expert Dr Jennifer Buckingham and John Gardner, who, until recently, was the Education Minister in South Australia. They talked about the political process of reforming literacy teaching. In South Australia, an approach emphasising phonics has been implemented, with national testing data now showing its benefits. Dr Helen Walls, a consultant Cognition Education, spoke about the teaching of writing. She echoed the necessity of moving away from constructivist ideology in literacy teaching and argued for a stronger focus on technical skills in writing. “It’s a false dichotomy to pit a technical focus against the view that writing ought to be creative. Writing is a creative act, but without the technical skills, creativity cannot be expressed”. Olwyn Johnston, Deputy Principal at Tawa School, and Jan Johnstone from the Southern Institute of Technology, spoke about research and practice with older students who have not successfully learned to read. They both emphasised the importance of strengthening understanding of phonics and showed data evincing the success of their approaches. Finally, Helena McAlister from the New Zealand Graduate School of Education spoke about her methods of training new teachers to be effective in literacy. The day added to a growing momentum for change in our approach to the teaching of literacy. There is a clear consensus amongst our experts that using ineffective methods would be both ignorant and unethical. The Initiative will be keeping up pressure for evidence-informed change for the sake of our young people. |
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| Dr Oliver Hartwich | Executive Director | oliver.hartwich@nzinitiative.org.nz | ||||||||||||
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Waka Kotahi’s trip will not be about showing solidarity with Ukraine. That is what politicians do. Justin Trudeau just visited Kyiv, so maybe Jacinda Ardern will soon follow. Waka Kotahi will not share lessons from its ‘Road to Zero’ campaign with the Ukrainian government, either. President Zelensky would probably not spend $10,000 on two large red prop ‘zeros’ as Waka Kotahi has just done. No, Waka Kotahi’s trip to Ukraine will focus on learning about infrastructure delivery. Yes, you read that right. While news from Ukraine has mainly been about infrastructure destruction, a small miracle is taking place in the war-torn country. As Putin’s forces continue to bombard their cities, Ukrainian authorities have already begun reconstruction. “Ukraine is rebuilding cities as fast as Russia destroyed them,” reported the Washington Post on Monday. The article featured stories from places like Bucha, where Russian troops had massacred hundreds. The road holes where the shells exploded have been repaired. Water and electricity are back on. Amazingly, even large pieces of infrastructure have been rebuilt. Among them were road and rail bridges that were destroyed by the Russians in the first weeks of the war. Irpin’s main bridge is now replaced with a temporary bridge measuring nine meters wide and 245 meters long. It took five days of uninterrupted work to complete it. Even the BBC reported about the newly restored train connection from Kyiv. This is where Waka Kotahi comes in. In the past, it has demonstrated a passion for bridges. Unfortunately, sometimes it had trouble delivering them. Auckland’s cycling bridge, for instance, began as an idea of an $8 million clip-on to Auckland Harbour Bridge. It then morphed into something which would have cost close to a billion dollars to build. By the time the project was abandoned, Waka Kotahi had already spent $52 million. That is a lot of money for no bridge. I am not sure how much the restored bridges in Irpin were, but I have a feeling they were not quite as expensive. Plus, they were actually built. In a few days. So let’s send Waka Kotahi to Ukraine. And if they find Ukraine’s infrastructure secret, we may allow them to return to New Zealand. |
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