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| Dr Michael Johnston | Senior Fellow | michael.johnston@nzinitiative.org.nz | ||||||||||||
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In 2028, a foundational award in literacy and numeracy will replace NCEA Level 1. The New Zealand Certificate of Education and the New Zealand Advanced Certificate of Education will replace NCEA Levels 2 and 3 in 2029 and 2030, respectively. Under NCEA, each assessment contributes credits towards qualifications. Students can opt out of assessments they think will be difficult. Under the new qualification system, that strategy will no longer fly. Students will receive grades for whole subjects, based on percentage scales. The change vindicates a decade of the Initiative’s work, especially Briar Lipson’s report, Spoiled by Choice. The report called for NCEA to be replaced with the kind of system Stanford announced. Reaction to the announcement has been generally positive. Teachers and principals know the piecemeal approach to assessment under NCEA has often made learning piecemeal as well. When students skip assessments, they also forego important learning. Chris Abercrombie, President of the secondary teachers' union, has said he likes the intention to improve vocational education pathways under the new system. He did raise a contentious point, however. Credits from a wide range of assessments can contribute to NCEA. When students struggle to achieve qualifications, they often get over the line with assessments for things like making CVs or barista skills. Abercrombie wants this kind of flexibility to continue under the new system. But there must be no place in the new system for that approach. Whether a qualification certifies curriculum subjects like mathematics and history, or vocational pathways like automotive engineering and animal husbandry, they must reflect coherent programmes of learning and assessment. Qualifications padded out with assessments of isolated skills are not worth much. They do not open doors to university, industry training, or employment. When students are awarded qualifications like this, they are frankly, being sold a lie. The new system will not enable low roads to qualifications. It will require our education system to lift its game. There will be much more incentive to support students to succeed in difficult learning. Not all students are interested in academic study, and the new system must deliver on Stanford’s promise to provide high-quality vocational pathways. But whether they study chemistry or carpentry, when students gain qualifications, it will mean they are ready for life and learning beyond school. |
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| Dr Bryce Wilkinson | Senior Fellow | bryce.wilkinson@nzinitiative.org.nz | ||||||||||||
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Australia got only a 10% slap. Labour calls this difference a “major fail”. Our negotiators rushed to Washington but came back empty-handed. The EU and UK got deals. We did not. Americans will buy Australia’s exports rather than ours, unless we accept lower prices. That cuts our incomes. For some, the urge to hit back is strong. Countries with economic clout might hit back ─ in the hope that the US will change its mind. New Zealand has no such clout. Happily, nobody in New Zealand seems to be calling for retaliatory tariffs. No politicians are demanding we match Trump’s tariffs. This restraint is good news. Tariffs hurt everyone. Normally, it is best to sell to whoever pays the most and to buy from whoever charges the least. Tariffs mess with this system. Trump’s tariff will hurt American consumers (who will pay more) and New Zealand exporters (who will earn less). Consider smartphones. American companies import chips from Asia because they are cheaper and better. With tariffs, phone makers pay more for these chips. Both imported and locally made phones in the US get more expensive. If New Zealand imposed a 15% tariff on incoming American goods New Zealanders’ living standards would drop even more. Our businesses would pay more for software and machinery. Our exporters, already struggling, would face higher costs for equipment. Kiwi shoppers would pay more. We would be hurting ourselves for no gain. Worse, hitting back could push Trump to raise his tariff on us even higher. Maybe to 25%. Maybe 40%. This is where size matters. America can threaten other countries because everyone wants to sell to its huge market. Trump’s threats carry weight. New Zealand’s small market is insignificant to the US giant. Globally, this attack on free trade is made more damaging by the wilful nature of these decrees. When businesses do not know if tariffs will be 10%, 15% or 50% next year, they stop building factories. Growth slows, even in the US. Everyone loses. Our government’s response has been sensible. Express regret. Adapt to reality. That restraint serves New Zealand well. |
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| Dr Eric Crampton | Chief Economist | eric.crampton@nzinitiative.org.nz | ||||||||||||
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Cassandra was a Trojan princess, blessed by the Gods with the gift of true prophecy – she really could see the future. But she was also cursed never to be believed. So, when she warned her fellow Trojans about the giant wooden horse left outside the city’s walls; they ignored her. I think Britain is similarly cursed. We can call it Britannia’s Curse. It’s one thing to hear a true prophecy and dismiss it. There are plenty of false prophets out there. But it’s quite another thing when a whole country keeps being warned about the consequences of terrible policies but enacts them anyway. And it’s worse when, despite those policies playing out as predicted, other countries decide to adopt them too. It is like other ancient cities deciding to follow Troy’s example and accept giant wooden horses left as ‘gifts’ by Greek armies. Consider the evidence for Britannia’s curse. Economists warned about abandoning free trade agreements with one’s largest neighbour. Britain left the EU regardless. The withdrawal has been a mess. Other countries should have learned not to leave even passably reasonable free trade agreements. Instead, the United States followed Britain’s example by blowing up the North American free trade area. Britain was warned not to cut taxes while running a large deficit. Truss’s government did it anyway, and the bond market reacted, costing her her job. The lesson should have been obvious. But America and New Zealand both went ahead with tax cuts despite deficits. Most recently, the UK decided that youths should be shielded from harmful content on the internet. Experts warned that age restrictions would prove a disaster for adult internet users and create a privacy nightmare. So far, those experts have been proved right. Shortly after the law was enacted, Spotify, Reddit, Xbox, and social media sites all started demanding that adults hand over their ID. Rather than learning from Britain’s experience, New Zealand’s parliamentarians seem keen on replicating failure by setting social media age limits. Britain does the world a service by demonstrating the consequences of bad policies, so that others can be warned to steer clear. But instead of taking the warning, we all follow them into the mire. Britannia’s curse is far more infuriating than Cassandra’s. Beware of Brits bearing policies. |
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