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Insights 21: 14 June 2024
Newsroom: Dr Oliver Hartwich on the European Central Bank's risky interest rate cut
 
Podcast: Eric and Nick talk about city and regional deals with Local Government New Zealand
 
NZ Herald: Dr Bryce Wilkinson assesses Roger Douglas' Budget 2024 proposals

Open for investment
Dr Oliver Hartwich | Executive Director | oliver.hartwich@nzinitiative.org.nz
At The New Zealand Initiative, we have long advocated a more welcoming stance towards foreign direct investment (FDI). Our research has consistently shown that New Zealand needs foreign capital to boost growth, and that our restrictive FDI rules have been a major barrier to attracting overseas investment.

So, we were encouraged when the new government promised FDI reform in the National-ACT coalition agreement. Associate Finance Minister David Seymour’s recent announcement of a new directive letter to the Overseas Investment Office (OIO) suggests that the promise is being acted upon with tangible policy changes.

The directive embraces the principle that New Zealand welcomes overseas investment, a crucial shift in mindset. It requires the OIO to adopt a risk-based approach, streamlining approval for most low-risk applications. It also cuts red tape by eliminating duplication between agencies in the assessment process.

The changes should make New Zealand more attractive to foreign investors by providing greater certainty and efficiency. Faster, more predictable processes for low-risk deals will encourage more global capital to consider New Zealand as an investment destination.

But even more promising is the Minister’s signal that this is just the first step in a wider reform process. The next stage will be a full rewrite of the Overseas Investment Act, opening the door to more fundamental changes to the foreign investment regime.

Our 2014 report Open for Business laid out an ambitious agenda for FDI reform. This included narrowing the definition of sensitive land, replacing screening with a notification regime, and abolishing discriminatory tests for foreign investors. The Minister’s three-stage reform plan puts comprehensive changes like these in play.

Achieving such a bold liberalisation will not be easy. Public opinion may constrain the pace and scope of reform. However, the direction is positive, and the government deserves credit for kick-starting the process of modernising our FDI rules.

As the reforms take shape, we will make a case for ambition. Ireland shows the transformative potential of embracing global capital. With the right changes, New Zealand could become a magnet for the world’s most innovative firms and investors.

The government has opened the door to a new, more liberal era for FDI. Now, it is time to step through boldly and make the most of the opportunity.

A more welcoming FDI regime could be one of this government’s most powerful economic legacies for boosting growth and productivity.

Charter school's second chapter
Briar Lipson | Adjunct Senior Fellow | info@nzinitiative.org.nz
In his key work, Machiavelli warned his Prince, “there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor dangerous to manage than the creation of a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who would gain by the new one.”

Machiavelli’s words could describe David Seymour’s predicament as he sets out on his bold quest to reestablish Charter Schools. Without a doubt, he will face a host of institutionalised foes.

This reality is made worse by the imbalance in education between a highly unionised teacher workforce and parents, who struggle to act collectively. By empowering Boards, the Tomorrow’s Schools policy was designed, in part, to address this imbalance. However, its potential has been held back from the start by dogged blocking of all attempts at transparency and accountability. As long as schooling stays a closed book, with Trustees and parents in the dark, Tomorrow’s Schools will continue to flounder.

Well-run Charter Schools, however, could change everything.

In England, over 650 Free (or Charter) Schools have opened since the launch of the enabling policy in 2010. A small number have also shut. At first, Free Schools were controversial. But with careful rollout and tight accountability, they are now well-established.

Secondary school performance in England is judged using measures of achievement and progress at ages 11, 16, and 18. The measures change every few years, which limits gaming. Currently the main metric is ‘Progress-8’, which measures pupils’ progress from the end of primary school to age 16.

Remarkably, in 2023, six of the top ten state secondary schools were Free Schools. Another standout is a formerly private Steiner school.

The top performer is the Michaela Community School, which has led the rankings for two years running. Under the leadership of Kiwi-born Katharine Birbalsingh, who visited Auckland in 2018, the Michaela School transforms the life chances of children from a deprived, inner-city community.

By inviting its backers and opponents alike to observe the success of teacher-led learning firsthand, the Michaela Free School has opened hundreds of minds to forgotten truths.

The New Zealand Initiative will keep a close eye as the Charter School policy develops. As with many groundbreaking policy ideas, the devil will lie in the legislative detail. But like a good teacher, the Initiative will be on hand to provide robust criticism, to insist on high standards and to back this visionary idea.

How to lose an election
Dr Matthew Birchall | Senior Fellow | matthew.birchall@nzinitiative.org.nz
Political strategists are obsessed with the art of winning elections. However, they sometimes overlook the equally impressive skill of losing them spectacularly. Enter Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, who is currently putting on a masterclass in electoral self-sabotage. 
 
Sunak’s first stroke of genius was to get off to a monumentally bad start. His announcement of a July election in the pouring rain outside 10 Downing Street was a consummate display of ineptitude. As the rain lashed the lectern and soaked through his slim-fitting suit, Sunak struggled to maintain his composure, his notes turning to mush in his hands. His campaign was washed up (and washed out) before it even began. 
 
Sunak didn’t rest on his laurels after this initial triumph. During a visit to a brewery in South Wales, he asked the staff if they were looking forward to making extra money from the upcoming Euro football championship. He had somehow managed to be unaware that Wales had failed to qualify – excellent self-destructive behaviour! 
 
Perhaps Sunak's pièce de résistance in his symphony of electoral blunders was his decision to leave the D-Day commemorations early, to film a pre-recorded TV interview. Channelling Churchill, Sunak might as well have declared, "You fight on the beaches, I shall leave the commemoration.” 
 
With three weeks to go until the election, there are countless other ways Sunak can further torpedo his prospects. He could propose a tax on tea and biscuits. Or appoint Prince Andrew as the honorary chairman of Pizza Express. He might even want to consider banning Match of the Day. After all, he was deprived of Sky TV as a child. 
 
Then there are countless opportunities for photo-op disasters – a staple of any campaign serious about getting annihilated. Imagine Sunak attempting to pet the King’s corgis and getting bitten. Or better yet, he could take inspiration from Boris Johnson's "Love Actually" parody. In Sunak’s version, he could hold up cue cards at voters' doors reading, "Actually, it's not you, it's me." 
 
The possibilities are endless for a leader as hellbent on electoral catastrophe as Sunak. His campaign has already succeeded in alienating voters and generally making a complete hash of things. With weeks left in hand, who knows how low he can go?  

 
On The Record
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Initiative Activities:
  • Podcast: City and regional deals, Nick Clark and Dr Eric Crampton talk to Sam Broughton and Simon Randall from Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ), 14 June 2024

To listen to our latest podcasts, please subscribe to The New Zealand Initiative podcast on iTunesSpotify or The Podcast App.
 
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