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Insights 16: 9 May 2025
NZ Herald: Dr Bryce Wilkinson on Budget 2025's necessary spending cuts
 
The Australian: Dr Oliver Hartwich on Ardern's lesson for victorious Albanese
 
The Post: Dr Eric Crampton on tariff shock echoing COVID disruptions
The importance of not being Donald
Dr James Kierstead | Research Fellow | james.kierstead@nzinitiative.org.nz
‘History doesn’t repeat,’ Mark Twain is said to have said, ‘but it often rhymes.’ And there could hardly be a better example of two events rhyming than the recent Canadian and Australian elections.

In both countries, the centre-right was flying high in the polls, with leads of up to 20% in Canada and 10% in Australia. In both countries, those leads had evaporated by the time the election took place, leading to victories for centre-left parties that had only recently been counted out. In both countries, hard-charging conservative leaders who had seemed on the cusp of becoming prime minister were instead out of parliament, having lost their seats.

What happened?

No election result is monocausal, and these elections were no exception. Canada’s centre-left Liberals got a boost after the once-popular Justin Trudeau fell on his sword and Mark Carney, his technocratic successor, proved a hit with voters. Peter Dutton, the leader of Australia’s centre-right coalition, was never a popular figure.

But commentators across the English-speaking world have been pointing to one man as playing a decisive role in both these elections: Donald Trump.

Trump’s impact is especially clear in Canada, which saw a resurgence of patriotism after Trump called for it to become the US’s ‘51st state.’ The Liberals, led by the cosmopolitan Carney, were the beneficiaries.

This was largely because of the perceived Trumpishness of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who railed against the World Economic Forum and pledged to defund the state-run Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Dutton set up a ‘government efficiency’ platform that echoed Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Centre-right parties should obviously learn from this, especially in terms of presentation. Poilievre’s Trump-like habit of adding derisive epithets to his opponent’s names (‘Carbon-tax Carney’) was never likely to go down well in a country with a notorious penchant for politeness.

But there is also a danger of over-correcting. The Conservatives’ share of the vote in Canada was the highest since 1988, with the Liberals limited to a minority government. In Australia, the coalition won 32% of first-preference votes, only 3% fewer than the victorious Labour party. This suggests that a robust policy platform can win a healthy share of the vote.

As voters across the Anglosphere have made clear, though, there is a line – the line that divides robust but civilised democratic politics from Trump’s MAGAlomania.
Getting teaching standards up to standard
Dr Michael Johnston | Senior Fellow | michael.johnston@nzinitiative.org.nz
Effective policy reform often comes from seemingly minor initiatives. Small changes can lead to significant improvements if they incentivise the right things. The current revisions to the Standards for the Teaching Profession are a perfect example of this.

The Teaching Council, the professional body overseeing the teaching profession, sets the Standards. Teachers must meet all six to be able to practise in New Zealand. The Standards therefore provide strong incentives for training providers to focus on course content that enables graduates to meet them.

The old Standards are vague. The Teaching Council presented that vagueness as a virtue: “The Standards are purposely designed at a high level,” they said, “so every practitioner can apply them to suit the context they are working in.” The trouble is ‘high level' standards lack the necessary detail to make them useful as performance benchmarks.

The old Standards also lack sufficient focus on effective teaching. Only two of the six directly address teaching practice. The other four are about professional development, professional relationships, providing inclusive environments in classrooms, and honouring the Treaty. 

The effect of the old Standards is evident in teacher education programmes run by universities. Those programmes fail to prepare teachers for the classroom. But because the Standards are vague, they leave enough wiggle room for almost all graduates to be deemed to meet them anyway.

The revised Standards are a significant improvement. The number of standards has increased from six to eight and are much clearer. Crucially, the balance has shifted towards a focus on effective teaching.

Teachers will now be expected to know the curriculum content and how to teach it. They will also have to demonstrate knowledge of how students learn. They will have to develop effective lessons and use assessment to guide feedback to students. Specific and timely feedback is one of the most powerful tools at teachers' disposal.

When the new Standards are implemented, the universities will have to improve their teacher training programmes to make sure that graduates can meet them. Otherwise, private providers will take their business. My money is on the latter.

Either way, this relatively minor and inexpensive policy change could lead to a substantial improvement in the quality of teaching in New Zealand's schools.
The Charlie Brown Pope
Dr Oliver Hartwich | Executive Director | oliver.hartwich@nzinitiative.org.nz
When Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected Pope Leo XIV, the global fishing expedition began. Journalists avidly trawled through his life, turning over every stone: his CV, rare interviews and, inevitably, the modern oracle: his X (formerly Twitter) account. 

True to form, the media quickly zeroed in on predictable fare: recent posts criticising Donald Trump’s deportations to El Salvador or taking issue with Senator JD Vance’s attempts to set rankings on Christian love. Serious stuff, suitably papal. 

But had anyone bothered scrolling back to May 2020 – well before he earned his cardinal’s hat – Prevost’s timeline would have revealed something delightfully out of papal character.  

Nestled among sober spiritual pronouncements and righteous political commentary, there it was: Charlie Brown and Snoopy, staring serenely across a lake.  

Charlie Brown, ever the optimist, remarks: “But Snoopy, there are many intelligent people!”  

Snoopy, wiser and perhaps more cynical, replies dryly: “Of course there are, but most of them are asymptomatic!” 

As journalists strained their eyes reading dense pastoral letters, who would have guessed that a cartoon dog offered clearer insight into the new Pope’s mindset? 

Now, to be fair, a cartoon repost is not quite what one would look for from a bishop, much less a Pope-in-waiting. Popes, after all, are supposed to be serious men doing serious things – certainly not browsing social media for life wisdom from cartoon dogs.  

Yet here we are, confronted with Pope Leo XIV’s secret Snoopy side. 

But this subtle comic jab hits closer to home than any political tirade. It gently mocks our cherished assumption that humanity is fundamentally wise, being created in God’s image.  

In 2025, even more than in 2020, Snoopy’s diagnosis – intelligence as a mostly asymptomatic condition – rings uncomfortably true. Common sense may indeed be the least common of all the senses. 

Perhaps this humorous repost reveals more about Pope Leo’s perspective on human nature than any of his solemn theological reflections ever could. The new pontiff, quietly chuckling over humanity’s folly, feels oddly reassuring.  

In a world of pompous declarations, moral high horses and endless virtue signalling, a Pope who appreciates Snoopy’s dry wit seems refreshingly human. 

As Pope Leo XIV settles into his role, we might find this gentle irony a welcome change. At just 69, he might be with us for decades.  

That is ample time to discover if the Pope’s humour continues leaning towards Charlie Brown’s hopeful melancholy or Snoopy’s sharp wit. Or perhaps an appealing blend of both. 
 
On The Record
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