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Insights 33: 4 September 2026
The Post: Dr Eric Crampton on why a late-night committee debate secured housing's future
 
New Podcast: Free to Disagree with Oliver Hartwich & Damien Grant on celebrities in politics
 
Quadrant: Dr Oliver Hartwich on how a self-serving mandarinate now runs Wellington

When a line on a map makes housing dearer
Dr Benno Blaschke | Senior Fellow | benno.blaschke@nzinitiative.org.nz
Imagine two paddocks at the edge of a city. They have the same soil and access to the same roads and pipes.

Then town planners allow homes on one side, but not the other. The first can be worth many times more. Nothing physical has changed. The rule has.

Families pay through dearer sections, mortgages and rents.

The new Planning Bill promised ‘competitive urban land markets’. That means having enough sites available that one planning line cannot make buildable land scarce.

When the Bill arrived last December, the promise was there. The means of keeping it were not.

Our February submission explained what was missing. In May, our report Beyond Targets showed how councils can declare they are delivering on their housing targets, on paper, while land and development opportunities remained scarce. Prices reveal what the spreadsheet hides.

The select committee returned the Bill in July. The mechanism was still missing.

In late July, Housing Minister Chris Bishop invited competitive advice. For three weeks, Eric Crampton and I joined a group of urban economists to answer two questions: who would decide whether planning rules were making land scarce and what would happen next?

Last week, Bishop tabled an amendment to add a world-first regime to the Bill: an Urban Land Market Officer.

The Officer will gather evidence, examine prices and planning rules, then publish a finding. If local planning helped cause a shortage, the council must follow a regulated process to address its part, including acting in a timely way. Town planners can no longer mark their own homework.

It is not everything we proposed. The Officer will sit inside the Ministry it may need to criticise. The scheme will not begin automatically, and ministers will shape it through later rules. Councils will choose the remedy with a deadline yet to be determined by the regulated process. There is no independent check on their response.

Parliament rarely sees nights like 25-26 August.

Bishop introduced something novel. No other country has given an independent officer this job. Labour MP and former housing minister Phil Twyford told the House that Labour supports the new system, calling the consensus across the aisle “a real bright spot”. They then debated it like statesmen, Twyford trying to strengthen it.

He wanted it to be more independent from Ministerial interference and firmer duties on town planners to fix council actions that stop the market from working.

Labour’s amendments lost. Yet Labour has now put on record that it wants the Officer strengthened, not scrapped. That makes the scheme more likely to survive a change of government.

Tahatū
Dr Michael Johnston | Senior Fellow | michael.johnston@nzinitiative.org.nz
For young people, contemplating career options can be bewildering. It can be hard even to know what opportunities are available.

Many school leavers enrol at university by default. It is a well-trodden path. In the past, university degrees reliably led to reasonably well-paid work.

There is no guarantee that this will continue to be so. Many occupations for which university has prepared young people in the past may be largely taken over by AI.

There is no complete solution to the career dilemmas facing young people. Things will continue to change in unpredictable ways. But one thing that would certainly help is better information about the opportunities that currently exist.

A few weeks ago in this newsletter, I suggested an online tool to help young people make informed decisions about post-school options. Shortly after that, I heard from the Tertiary Education Commission (TEC). It turns out they have already created that tool.

Tahatū is a ‘career navigator’ website that enables young people to explore more than 800 career ideas. It helps them choose subjects for their senior secondary years and plan their post-school study.

Careers are organised into twelve broad categories, from Arts, Media and Design, to Transport and Supply. Each broad category is broken into subcategories, each with a list of specific careers. There is a description of what each career entails, its income distribution, what qualifications are required, and how long it takes to qualify, and what the fees would be.

For example, Aerospace Engineers oversee the design, construction and testing of aircraft, satellites and spacecraft. They need either a Bachelor of Engineering degree or an apprenticeship in aeronautical engineering.

Aerospace Engineers must gain certification from the Civil Aviation Authority and register as chartered professional engineers with Engineering New Zealand. The usual salary range is from $81k-$141k, with some engineers earning up to $175k.

There is even a link from each career page to positions advertised on Seek and Trademe. That gives an indication of the current demand for each occupation.

Tahatū cannot predict the future. It cannot tell young people what work will be available in even a few years’ time. But what it does, very well, is to capture the current scope of work. Guided by parents and careers counsellors, it can help young people navigate a challenging life transition.

I highly recommend Tahatū to all young New Zealanders wondering what to do with their lives.

Birds of a feather
Dr Oliver Hartwich | Executive Director | oliver.hartwich@nzinitiative.org.nz
Voting opens today in the most important election of 2026. And no, this is not the General Election.

I am talking about Forest & Bird’s ‘Bird of the Year’. Run annually since 2005, it has become a fixture in New Zealand’s calendar.

This year comes with a twist. It is election-themed, starting with an electoral system inspired by MMP. There are bird votes and party votes. Thankfully, they are combined, so overhang seats are not possible.

The seventy-odd birds stand for six parties, each with a manifesto. Sorry, a ‘manu-festo’, manu being te reo Māori for bird. And those manu-festos may remind you of certain human parties.

The Tree Birds run on roots. “Unlike certain offshore parties who disappear across the horizon for months at a time, Tree Birds believe in putting down roots and sticking around for the long haul,” they proclaim. I think I have heard that before, if not from a bird.

The Floor Birds, meanwhile, speak for “the flightless battlers” and campaign under “Ready to take the floor... again.” So yes, for some birds, too, this is not their first rodeo.

The Shy Birds party is my personal favourite. Its slogan is “Once bittern, twice shy”, the bittern being a bird rarely seen. It warns against underestimating “the quiet caucus”. National’s failed coup has given that a completely new relevance.

And yet, policy trouble is on the horizon, especially for migratory birds.

This week, the kūaka, the bar-tailed godwit, will land in New Zealand after flying 11,000 kilometres from Alaska non-stop. Luckily, it stays with us for six months, clearing ACT’s proposed rule that residents spend 730 days here in every five years. Which means it has the right to return next year.

Then there is the shining cuckoo, also migratory. It has found an ingenious way to circumvent the foreign buyer ban by laying its eggs in the grey warbler’s nest. Whether the warbler can then claim New Zealand First’s $45,000 Kiwi Kids Grant is unclear.

Voting is not restricted to citizens, and we know where this can lead. In 2023, US late-night host John Oliver hijacked the competition and delivered 290,000 votes from around the world to the pūteketeke.

In politics at least, birds will always hold a natural advantage over us humans: every candidate is a left-winger and a right-winger at once.

And with that, the campaign season is off to a flying start.

 
On The Record

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