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Insights 38: 9 October 2026
Podcast: Free to Disagree with Dr Oliver Hartwich & Damien Grant on National’s poll problem
 
New Research Note: Too slow to notice: Four fixes for a fast Cabinet, Major General John Howard and Dr Reuben Steff
 
Newsroom: Dr Oliver Hartwich on why New Zealand's fuel security depends on others' oil

Two steps behind: why Wellington needs faster intelligence
Major General John Howard | Senior Fellow | john.howard@nzinitiative.org.nz
This year's NZSIS Security Threat Environment report lists many threats facing New Zealand. But one of the biggest is not on its list: the Government has more useful intelligence than ever before, yet it is not digesting that intelligence fast enough to matter.

Ministers need faster briefings that turn intelligence into policy choices before events move on. To achieve this, Cabinet requires a decision-support process fit for today.

Comparable systems have already put regular strategic briefings at the centre of government. Washington prepares an intelligence brief for the President every day. Other serious nations offer daily and weekly updates that keep senior decision makers closer to events as they unfold.

The shortfall is not in what New Zealand knows. It is in how slowly we decide. Our system is still over-classified, too paper-based, too formal and too slow.

It was built for an older world and designed to deliberate rather than act, but we now live in one where information moves much faster. Several of our partners have made much of that journey and built mature systems for turning intelligence into decision advantage.

New Zealand will never collect as much intelligence as larger nations, and it need not try. The material that matters most is increasingly available online. What we can choose to do is close the gap between what any analyst with an internet connection and a bank account can know in near-real time and what Cabinet can act on. That gap should be measured in days, or sometimes hours, not weeks.

The tools already exist. What New Zealand needs is people who know where to look, and who are empowered to put critical information to senior officials quickly. Sometimes that will mean watching live information streams and using specialists skilled in AI to filter and analyse data at volume and velocity.

In this decade, strategic relevance belongs to the government that organises itself to act inside the window of opportunity, not the one that writes the best assessment after the window has closed. New Zealand's partners and competitors are moving this way. Wellington is not. We are two steps behind: an industrial-age Cabinet that never fully entered the information age, confronting an environment already moving at pace into the age of intelligence.

The good news is that this is not mainly about money. It is about organising government better. That means it can be fixed now.

Read our research note 'Too slow to notice: Four fixes for a fast Cabinet' and watch our explainer video. Listen to John and Oliver discuss these issues and others on our podcast.

Ritual punishment
Dr Michael Johnston | Senior Fellow | michael.johnston@nzinitiative.org.nz
Human beings have a tendency to blame and punish others for their misfortunes.

The ancient Greeks turned this tendency into a ritual called pharmakos. When plague, famine or another disaster struck a city, its people drove one of their own out to purge their misfortune. Victims of pharmakos had done nothing to cause the calamity, although they were usually considered socially undesirable.

The election campaign has revived this ancient ritual.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis has promised to empower the Commerce Commission to recommend breaking up Foodstuffs if the National-led government is returned in November.

If the Commission recommended separation, the government could force the two Foodstuffs supermarket chains, Pak'nSave and New World, to become independent companies. The rationale is that splitting the company would create more competition, thereby putting downward pressure on grocery prices.

Unsurprisingly, Foodstuffs is opposed to the plan. It commissioned a poll to see where most New Zealanders stand.

Forty-six percent of respondents supported the idea, with 37 percent opposed. Yet only 28 percent thought the policy would actually reduce prices. Forty-eight percent thought it would not.

So, at least 18 percent of respondents support the policy but don't expect it to bring down prices. That is the logic of ritual, not of effective policy.

But are the supermarkets to blame for rising grocery prices?

Whatever the merits of the competition case, supermarkets didn't cause the recent surge in food prices.

Rises in New Zealand's food prices have been in the OECD mid-range over the past 20 years. To be sure, there have been recent spikes but they largely reflect covid-era fiscal stimulus and global instability.

A few years ago, there was a sharp increase in general inflation, with food prices hit especially hard. That spike was caused by over-stimulus during covid.

The Ukraine and Persian Gulf wars have caused massive increases in the prices of fertiliser and oil, increasing both food production and transportation costs.

Food inflation hurts. People are struggling and understandably angry. Many want a target for that anger.

Governments and large corporations both make easy targets. New Zealanders love to hate 'useless politicians' and 'greedy capitalists' in equal measure.

By focusing attention on Foodstuffs, the policy invites voters to blame the company rather than the Government. But if the government is returned, Foodstuffs split up, and food prices keep rising, what then?

The public will be looking for another sacrificial victim.

Saving our soils from the evidence
Paul Melville | Senior Fellow | paul.melville@nzinitiative.org.nz
New Zealand has faced many crises. Few have inspired such quiet resolve as the campaign to save our most productive soils from houses.

For almost 200 years, we built cities on our best dirt. Panmure was once market gardens. So was Naenae. Each time gardens were ransacked by houses, the growers blissfully moved to the next paddock out, like a bow wave ahead of a boat.

Through it all, no amount of suburban wasteland stopped the vegetables flowing. Stubbornly, food prices have not outpaced inflation.

A less determined nation might have concluded there was no crisis. Not us. In 2019, fearing Pukekohe would vanish under houses, the Government proposed a National Policy Statement for Highly Productive Land.

In the fight to save our soils, this policy would unleash the most powerful weapon in our national arsenal: the RMA.

Anyone wanting to build a house on highly productive land would face the wrath of their council planning department.

Treasury, ever the party-pooper, warned the policy had 'a weak problem definition and rationale for intervention'. Officials disagreed. Their recorded response: 'Noted, no change to paper'. Evidence would be sought later, through public consultation. Decide first, look second. It saves time.

Then came the cost-benefit analysis. It found that 'the long-term net costs outweigh the long-term net benefits'. Lesser policies would have died there.

The land use numbers were no more helpful. After 200 years of urban development, cities covered less than one percent of the country's land. Outdoor vegetables covered about 0.3 percent. The largest land uses remained native vegetation and sheep and beef farms.

Concerns about an impending shortage of vegetable-growing land lived on.

In 2025, the policy faced its toughest challenge yet. A new planning system promised to respect property rights. Alarmingly, this could have meant letting owners decide what their land is best used for, even if they chose houses or a solar farm.

The policy fought back. If the system must respect so-called property rights, why not redefine property rights?

The illustrative National Policy Direction for the new Planning Bill declared that protecting property rights meant that restrictions on the use of private land would only occur 'when necessary to ensure others are not unreasonably affected or to provide for important public values.'

Like magic, the policy lifted itself from the brink. So long as restrictions protected something the public valued, by definition it protected property rights.

Our most elite soils lived to fight another day.

 
On The Record

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