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| Dr Oliver Hartwich | Executive Director | oliver.hartwich@nzinitiative.org.nz | |||
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National aims to bring down government spending to 30% of GDP, while Labour wants to stabilise it around 33% of GDP. National has pledged not to introduce any new taxes, while Labour is campaigning on a new capital gains tax. Over the coming weeks, each side will pick through the other’s plans for hidden taxes, fiscal holes and fudged figures. Scrutiny is warranted. New Zealand runs a structural deficit, and whoever governs after November must close it. Still, talking about tax pledges and distant budget surpluses should only be part of the discussion. Fiscal consolidation is necessary, as both parties agree. But necessary is not the same as sufficient. The other half of economic policy should lay the foundations for economic growth, improving productivity and increasing competitiveness. And on that, we have so far heard precious little in this election campaign. That is a problem because, in international competitiveness rankings, New Zealand has dropped over the past three decades. The IMD yearbook has us 31st. This year, it concluded that competitiveness now hinges on credible institutions. That should be a focus for any future government. And indeed, there is much work to be done on New Zealand’s institutional quality. This week, Parliament’s Privileges Committee found that MBIE officials deliberately misled a select committee about a failed IT project. ‘There is a rot’, the Immigration Minister herself conceded. This is not just one agency’s lapse. MBIE answers to about 20 ministers. It is one complex node in a tangled web of more than three dozen departments and more than 80 portfolios, so no minister is ever clearly in charge. Structural reform is required. The number of portfolios should be cut to around 20, with Ministers leading their departments and able to pick their chief executives. When an agency has failed by design, it should be replaced rather than repaired. Institutions that work deliver infrastructure on time, produce regulation that makes sense and provide effective public services. Getting to grips with these institutional matters should be as much a priority for the next Parliament as dealing with the budget deficit. Both aspects of government are vital for our future productivity and competitiveness. |
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| Dr Bryce Wilkinson | Senior Fellow | bryce.wilkinson@nzinitiative.org.nz | |||
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No competent physician would prescribe a remedy for a symptom before determining its cause.
Local Government Minister Simon Watts wants to cap council rates increases at 2 to 4 percent. Why? Because, ratepayers have been hit with "steep and unexpected" rises that add to cost of living pressure. That describes a symptom. It is not a diagnosis. Rate rises, unexpected or not, could be justified. Perhaps councils are finally catching up on the need for greater spending for roads, pipes and water infrastructure. I calculate that in 2024, adjusted for inflation, local government spending per household on capital formation was higher than in 2018 by $1,227, a 46% rise. Spending on current consumption was up by $767 (19%). The need for increased council current and capital spending on infrastructure is hardly controversial. Quality is a real concern. There are issues of inadequate accountability, incompetence, poor information, inattention to value for money and disempowered elected representatives. Minister Watts's press release does not mention such matters. Nor does a cap on additional spending do anything to raise the quality of new or existing spending. Local democracy is another concern. If ratepayers vote for councillors who support large rate increases why stop them? That some ratepayers object is not a good reason. Given a diagnosis of inadequate self-management, the physician’s attention can turn to treatment options. Elected councillors need more power to force management to give them more timely and adequate information. That would improve accountability and ratepayer scrutiny. A ratepayers' bill of rights that requires a referendum before major capital commitments is an additional option. Requiring rigorous, timely cost benefit analysis of big projects would inform councillors and ratepayers alike. The Regulatory Standards Act might help here. Our diagnostician might also detect a spreading disease. A 4% rates cap decrees that increases above about $400 million a year (around $200 per household) are unaffordable. In contrast, the government’s 2026 Budget is for the core tax take this fiscal year to be 6.5% higher than last year. This is an $8 billion rise from $124 billion to $132 billion. That increase represents about $4,000 per household. How can $4,000 be affordable if anything over around $200 is not affordable? Our physician could be forgiven for adding a taxpayer bill of rights to her prescription for a ratepayer bill of rights. |
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| Dr Eric Crampton | Chief Economist | eric.crampton@nzinitiative.org.nz | |||
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This week, the government introduced legislation intended to protect youths from online harms.
If the Bill passes, covered social media platforms will be required to take ‘reasonable steps’ to stop under-16s from having accounts. Platforms that do not do enough will risk large fines. And Kiwis of every age could be blocked from accessing sites that fail to comply. Risks to freedom of expression are not funny at all. But another part of the Bill could have amusing consequences. Covered platforms will have to produce child-safety risk assessments. These assessments must consider harms to under-18s, including harm from “false or misleading information”. It is an election year. False and misleading information is not hard to find. Meta’s first assessment could include a section that reads something like this: “Thank you for the opportunity to report risks we have seen from false and misleading information over the past year, which includes the election period.
On 21 May, the National Party posted a graph suggesting that the number of core public servants fell under the 2008-2017 National government. But full-time-equivalent numbers actually rose by 8.5%. On 29 June, National posted a video saying, “If you ever want to earn $160,000, you’d need to pay 45 per cent of it to the Greens and Labour. It’s right there in their document.” But only income above the threshold would face that tax rate. And only if Labour agreed to the Greens’ proposal. On 4 July, a National Party MP posted a billboard claiming a Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori government would “Triple Your Taxes.” A person earning $160,000 currently pays $42,677 in income tax: 26.7% of their income. Tripling that would lift it to $128,000 in tax – an implausible 80% of their income. On 16 August, the National Party posted that Labour “is looking to bring back their Ute tax plus a Streaming tax.” There is no evidence that Labour still supports a ute tax. And while Labour has considered a streaming tax, Hon Goldsmith has considered requiring Netflix to invest in New Zealand content. The measures are similar, and the cost of either would pass through to subscribers. To address the risk of false and misleading information, we have deactivated the National Party’s Facebook page. Some may describe this as censorship of important political speech. We believe it is proportionate risk mitigation. Why do these naysayers refuse to protect children?”
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