Our British election tracker

By THE DATA TEAM

THERESA MAY, Britain’s prime minister, caught even keen political observers by surprise on April 18th when she announced she would call a snap election. The country’s previous general election was held less than two years ago, and its vote to leave the European Union is just ten months old. However, Mrs May has never led her party in an electoral campaign; she became prime minister after her predecessor, David Cameron, stepped down. She justified her decision by saying she needed to secure a mandate from the public for negotiating the country’s exit from the EU, which could strengthen Britain’s bargaining position.

Current polling suggests Mrs May is overwhelmingly likely to obtain the support she seeks. The Conservatives enjoy a 20-percentage-point lead over Labour, whose choice of a hard-left leader in Jeremy Corbyn has limited its appeal. Support for the Tories is strong among virtually all demographic groups save the youngest voters, aged 18-24. And those youngsters, who are staunch Labour partisans, tend to vote less than other groups: just 40% of them turned out in 2015, compared with nearly 80% of people over 65.

The campaign is likely to revolve around the terms of Brexit, an issue where the Conservatives seem to have the upper hand politically. Labour is only offering a softer version of the “hard Brexit” Mrs May proposes. For those seeking a full reversal of the referendum result, the only real alternative besides regional parties is the Liberal Democrats. However, voters are still punishing the Lib Dems for sharing power with the Tories between 2010 and 2015. Moreover, Mrs May’s embrace of a hard Brexit is likely to see off the threat from the UK Independence Party, which claimed most of its support from older voters keen to see Britain leave the EU. Even if the announcement of the election was a surprise, the result seems very predictable.

Correction: A previous version had April 17th as the date the general election was announced. This has been changed.