Germany’s coalition talks have broken down

By THE DATA TEAM

AT THE start of this year some pundits lamented the decline of American leadership by bestowing the title of “leader of the free world” on Angela Merkel. Following the failure of coalition talks this week, it remains to be seen how much longer she will remain the leader of Germany.

Germany’s post-war political system has a reputation for delivering solid, stable governments. Mrs Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and their centre-left counterparts, the Social Democrats (SPD), dominate the political landscape. Between them, they have led every government since the 1960s in coalition with just one other party: usually a small one, and occasionally with each other.

The election in September produced a more fragmented Bundestag than previous ones. The far-right newcomers, Alternative for Germany (AfD), took third place, squeezing more mainstream parties. The SPD, burned by four years as the junior partner in government, achieved its worst result ever. It has ruled out another round, preferring to lick its wounds in opposition. As Mrs Merkel’s party also fared poorly, the only other viable majority would be a three-way coalition with two smaller parties, the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP). After weeks of negotiations, the FDP has walked away.

Mrs Merkel could try to assemble a minority government, but she has said she favours new elections. A snap poll conducted on November 20th suggests that support for the parties has shifted little, and that a new Bundestag would look much like the one causing her current headache. But the discussions and constitutional hurdles that have to be overcome before another election can take place leave plenty of time for numbers to change. The parties know this, and are posturing accordingly. In that respect the campaign has already begun.