Next Monday the General Election will enter a new phase with the opening of early voting booths.
Advance voting has rocketed in popularity in the last couple of elections and its growth is likely to carry on in 2017, with one observer predicting that as much as half of the valid vote could be cast before Election Day.
This development changes the dynamics of campaigning as the parties and the candidates will, from Monday, be addressing a shrinking audience and policies launched after that date will have a dwindling effect on the result.
The popularity of early voting explains why Steven Joyce launched his "12 billion dollar hole in Labour's budget" attack when he did. It also explains why it backfired on him so badly.
In previous years he would have saved this assault until the final week, leaving the Labour Party no opportunity to respond.
This attack occurred so early that there was plenty of time for ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie, Christina Leung from the NZIER, Eric Crampton from the New Zealand Initiative and independent economist Shamubeel Eaqub amongst many others to pronounce Joyce's accusation unfounded nonsense.
Though Joyce could not find a single economist or financial commentator who supported his claims, his Leader, Bill English, was stuck with defending this garbage, so some of the scorn inevitably settled on him.
The Colmar Brunton poll published by TVNZ last Thursday showed Labour again in the lead and steady on 43 per cent with National falling backwards to 39 per cent. This is the first time in at least a decade that National has slipped below the psychologically damaging 40 per cent mark.
For once the "Big Lie" tactic flopped badly.
Lawrence Yule and other National Party candidates fighting in tough electorates will be quietly cursing Mr Joyce. Poll results like these mean electorates like Tukituki and Wairarapa are very much in play.
One particular advanced voting place in the Tukituki electorate that will be worthy of close attention is the booth located in the Havelock North Function Centre at 30 Te Mata Rd.
If some of the 5000 Havelock North victims of the poisoned water disaster of last year decide to make a statement via the ballot box, that's where it will show up.
High numbers of votes at that site will likely mean trouble for Lawrence Yule and there are already signs that the solid majority Lawrence Yule inherited from Craig Foss is under threat.
This is because the "Jacinda" effect looks to be running particularly strongly in Tukituki.
As of last week 10 per cent more 18-24-year-olds and fully 15 per centre more 25-29-year-olds than the national average were enrolled to vote in the electorate.
This augmented flow of new young voters would be insufficient on its own to overcome the majority bequeathed to Lawrence Yule, but as these voters disproportionately favour Labour, it's an indication that Anna Lorck and the Labour Party are making an impact.
The Wairarapa electorate, which includes Waipukurau and Waipawa, is another electorate worth watching.
The sitting National MP, Alastair Scott, has a business in the electorate but chooses to live in Wellington.
This has become an issue in the campaign with a local paper publishing a biting piece under the heading "Do we deserve better?" which said: "locals had become resigned to the fact that their MP couldn't get much done for the region - something that was unacceptable and "When delivering his maiden speech in Parliament three years ago, our current MP, National's Alastair Scott, didn't mention Wairarapa once when detailing what he wanted to achieve (but he did mention Richie McCaw three times)".
Labour commissioned a poll which put Scott at 33 per cent, Labour's Kieran McAnulty at 30 per cent and New Zealand First's Ron Mark at 19 per cent.
With Ron Mark now Deputy Leader of New Zealand First, second on that Party's list and guaranteed a seat in Parliament, Alastair Scott is in danger of falling to tactical voting.
Labour candidates have won Wairarapa in recent years, and with a decent swing on, Kieran McAnulty could join their ranks.
All of the MMP elections have been close and this one could well be settled by unexpected results in some individual seats.
On the face of it, the Christchurch seat of Ilam held by Foreign Affairs Minister Gerry Brownlee should be utterly safe for National. Brownlee scored close to 60 per cent of the candidate vote in 2014, but the race this time is complicated by the entry of Raf Manji, a Christchurch City councillor who is standing as an independent.
Manji was an easy winner in the 2016 Council elections and has some very well-heeled backers.
A seasoned local observer tells me he's "in with a chance" and if she's right, we might just possibly see one independent MP decide who leads the Government for the next term.
Mike Williams grew up in Hawke's Bay. He is CEO of the NZ Howard League and a former Labour Party president. All opinions are his and not those of Hawke's Bay Today.