Our British election tracker

By THE DATA TEAM

Current polling suggests Mrs May is overwhelmingly likely to obtain the support she seeks. The Conservatives enjoy a 20-percentage-point lead over Labour, whose choice of a hard-left leader in Jeremy Corbyn has limited its appeal. Support for the Tories is strong among virtually all demographic groups save the youngest voters, aged 18-24. And those youngsters, who are staunch Labour partisans, tend to vote less than other groups: just 40% of them turned out in 2015, compared with nearly 80% of people over 65.

The campaign is likely to revolve around the terms of Brexit, an issue where the Conservatives seem to have the upper hand politically. Labour is only offering a softer version of the “hard Brexit” Mrs May proposes. For those seeking a full reversal of the referendum result, the only real alternative besides regional parties is the Liberal Democrats. However, voters are still punishing the Lib Dems for sharing power with the Tories between 2010 and 2015. Moreover, Mrs May’s embrace of a hard Brexit is likely to see off the threat from the UK Independence Party, which claimed most of its support from older voters keen to see Britain leave the EU. Even if the announcement of the election was a surprise, the result seems very predictable.