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Russia is no longer a state. It’s a terrorist organisation.
That’s the uncompromising verdict of Oliver Hartwich, Newsroom columnist and executive director of The New Zealand Initiative think tank.
It comes after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov defended Moscow's war in Ukraine at the UN Security Council, overnight. Lavrov turned up to the council chamber only to deliver his address to the powerful 15-member body; he did not listen to anyone else speak.
The Security Council has been unable to take meaningful action because Russia is a permanent veto-wielding member along with the United States, France, Britain and China – a structure that NZ has sought to reform for many years.
What NZ can do is expel the Russian Ambassador to NZ, Georgii Zuev. And Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta confirms the Government is “actively considering” that serious option. (The rhetorical description of a ‘nuclear option’ no longer seems appropriate, in the face of the real thing).
One final straw has piled upon another on the past two days. Vladimir Putin has called up 300,000 reservists, mocked up hasty sham independence referendums in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, and warned of the use of nuclear weapons.
“If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” he said, in a national address. “It’s not a bluff.”
The National and Act opposition parties have both reiterated their calls for the ambassador to be expelled. “New Zealand has always been proud of its nuclear-free stance," says National's Gerry Brownlee.
And Hartwich, a former chief economist at Policy Exchange in London, and an advisor to the UK House of Lords, says Zuev should have been kicked out after the Bucha massacres – that was reason enough. “I'm surprised the Ambassador is still here.”
A Russian regime that openly toys with the use of nuclear weapons, incarcerates and kills opposition politicians and has spent hundreds of millions on distorting the politics of many democracies around the world is no longer a state like others, he says.
“Even the tactical nukes we are talking about now have about two thirds the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. It would be a breach of civilisation to use them. It should be a taboo to even consider their use.
“Putin is cornered and running out of options. That's why we cannot rule out anything right now. It may appear irrational to us but not too someone for whom the alternative is to be removed by his own terror apparatus.”
However, there are arguments that expelling Zuev would be little more than symbolism; that keeping diplomatic channels open would be more effective.
Geoffrey Miller, an international analyst for the Democracy Project, based at Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington, says the escalation is “incredibly serious”.
“The world is currently facing the biggest nuclear threat since the height of the Cold War – possibly the biggest since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.”
He says this morning that a coordinated expulsion of Russian ambassadors by Western countries could well be in the works, and NZ would take part in that.
But in 1962, it was dialogue between the US and Russian sides that ultimately defused the Cuban missile crisis and brought the world back from the brink of nuclear war.
Despite placing the option of expulsion on the table, the NZ Govt's preference remains diplomacy.
And because dialogue and de-escalation are the only real way of reducing the nuclear threat, Miller argues expelling the Ambassador would be counterproductive – however tempting and understandable the desire to do so may be.
“We need to keep channels of communication open. As Biden says, a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
// The 8 Things newsletter will not be published on Monday, Queen Elizabeth II Memorial Day. But many shops and cafes will be open, offering you the chance to support NZ's small businesses by sharing some of those green $20 notes commemorating her reign – and paying an additional surcharge in some cases. 8 Things will return on Tuesday.
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1. From our newsroom
// Crime & Justice
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Is the SFO too powerful for its own good?
The narrow, white-walled room with its big, ticking analogue clock and long wooden table seems too small for five people, a video camera and all the human, legal and personal rights hung up on the back of the door. On one side of the table sits Joe Zheng, an Auckland building contractor, with his lawyer, who describes "a windowless, small room, a foreign environment."
Zheng was at the Serious Fraud Office under a compulsory order, known as a Section 9, issued by investigators pursuing leads on donations to the Labour and National parties. A High Court trial of seven people over those donations has given a rare insight into what goes on in this room; the case underlined the extent of the SFO's unfettered power during an investigation.
The prosecutions have exposed concerns about the use of its extensive coercive powers and secrecy, and the manner in which it treated suspects, withheld information from them and blanked their lawyers. We look at why it might face its own examination once the dust settles.
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Viva la EV-lution: Dunedin firm powers up
James Hardisty is a recovered petrolhead; he used to drive a Ford F-350 Super Duty pickup truck with the world’s biggest mass-produced petrol engine. Now the Dunedin electrician is a Tesla driver. He’s also eager to help ute owners leave the ICE age behind without having to scrap their workhorses.
Hitting the Government’s target of EVs replacing 30 percent of the internal combustion engine light vehicles on our roads by 2035 will require a massive fleet conversion. But his small Dunedin firm is doing its bit one ute at a time.
To prove the concept, he’s converting a 1980s-vintage Toyota Hilux that he bought for a song to battery power. It won’t be cheap – he guesses the parts, labour and compliance costs will total about $100,000 – but once running it will be more powerful than the original vehicle. He’s under no illusions, though, that farmers and tradies will be flocking to his firm EV-lution at that price.
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Rod Oram: NZ distant from New York climate talks, isolated from the world
Climate dissonance was on stark display this week. At the United Nations, the Secretary-General warned world leaders "our planet is burning". But here in NZ, unambitious business leaders still fail to set 1.5C climate targets.
In Auckland they met for a polite conversation that noted the modest progress made over the past 16 years on this existential issue, shared knowledge about how to do more, and expressed some cautious optimism about the way ahead.
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Calls to follow Australia’s lead on truckie pay and conditions
The country's largest driver union wants the Government to introduce a Safe Rates system, saying its implementation overseas has resulted in fewer road crashes. It would legislate a baseline rate for driver wages, meaning when contracts were negotiated companies would need to make sure drivers received the cash they had been promised.
First Union strategic project co-ordinator Anita Rosentreter wrote to the Transport Minister Michael Wood yesterday urging him to adopt the model committed to in Australia, and underway for a number of years already in South Korea. “Our ambitious Road to Zero target of a 40 percent reduction in road deaths by 2030 will not be met without bold action."
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Newsroom candidates' survey: How would you vote on co-governance with iwi?
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The awkward debate on co-governance
Auckland's mayoral candidates went head-to head over iwi Māori co-governance this week. Efeso Collins lost patience with audience questions and interjections on the Tūpuna Maunga Authority's policies on exotic trees. "If you could not be so rude and let me finish," he snapped.
Collins said the authority is compelled to consult on any plans, and that will happen. He was responding, in part, to challenger Wayne Brown who was similarly awkward on the subject.
Brown said the Tūpuna Maunga Authority's co-governance model might need the addition of "forceful characters representing the public, to balance the forceful characters representing alternative interests".
So what are council candidates' positions on co-governance, in Auckland and around the country? Despite all the heat, preliminary results from more than 400 respondents to a Newsroom candidates' survey indicate most are happy with existing co-governance (32%), or would extend it further (32%). Only 15% of candidates are arguing for less co-governance.
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Three local races you should know about
The 2022 local body elections are officially upon us and the races feel decisively spicier than they were in 2019. There's a wave of incumbent mayors stepping down, hot button local issues like housing and Three Waters, and the thinly-veiled seeding of Voices for Freedom-aligned candidates.
The Detail reviews three different mayoral races you might not have seen in the headlines, but probably should have. Invercargill City Council is bruised by conflict and dysfunctional relationships between elected officials, stoked in part by a "leadership void" from mayor Sir Tim Shadbolt. Rotorua has an emergency housing crisis, with more than 50 motels contracted to MSD and tenants contributing to an uptick in public disorder. And in Dunedin, the country's first Green mayor Aaron Hawkins faces challenges over his work to remove carparks and pedestrianise the CBD.
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On Peter Dunne's article "Labour must make a bold, unpredictable move to win next election":
“Rachael Ruegg
Instead of either wiping student loan debt (which helps former students) or decreasing GST (which helps with the current cost of living), they could make tertiary education fees free instead. This wouldn't be out of line with Labour policies so far (having made trades training fees free already and introduced fees-free study for the first year, which was originally part of a plan to make tertiary education totally fees free). It would help students in more of a forward-looking way, eliminating student loans for current and future students, rather than for past ones, and it would help to deal with the cost of living for students (who are finding it tough right now) and their parents (who may still have student loans themselves, but at least they won't need to put all their hard-earned cash into ensuring their kids graduate without them).
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Visa wave - More than 53,000 of the 106,000 applications for the Government’s one-off 2021 resident visa have been successful in the nine months since the application process opened, Minister of Immigration Michael Wood has announced.
Retirement plan - A new report by the Ministry of Pacific Peoples says that improving the wellbeing of Pacific peoples in retirement is best done by financial education and better housing solutions to meet intergenerational living needs. The latest Statistics NZ census found that 27.4% of Pacific peoples aged 70+ lived in a crowded home, compared with 2.7% of the total population.
Median rare - Credit Suisse's global wealth report shows NZ had the biggest increase in average wealth per adult in the world, soaring by about $195,000 in 2021 to bring the median wealth per adult to $395,000 in 2021 – a 32% annual rise – placing NZ in the top three countries.
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Quote du jour
“On almost every metric [Jacinda Ardern] has failed on promises, so we intend to ruthlessly hold her and her Government to account for incompetence and a lack of delivery. I don’t see that as personality-based politics, I just see that as us doing our job.”
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// News over here...
Business leaders hammer Govt, in big boardroom survey
(NZ Herald - $)
US bank never employed Christchurch City Holdings boss
(BusinessDesk - $)
More than a quarter of public servants earning more than $100,000
(Stuff.co.nz)
// And over there...
Is Putin cracking up?
(The New European)
Mahsa Amini: Protests over woman’s death claim more lives in Iran
(BBC)
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Newsroom Daily Quiz
How long can a cockroach live without its head?
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